Dynamic Analysis of the Relationship between Natural Resources and Militarism in the Middle East Countries

Document Type : Research Papers

Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the effect of natural resources abundance on military expenditure in the Middle East countries during the years of 1995-2014. For this purpose, design a general model of military expenditure for this countries with the presence of natural resource abundance indicators, Includes two general index: The share of natural resource revenues from the GDP and the share of fuel exports from the merchandise exports and also 5 separate indicators, including: revenue share of oil, natural gas, coal, forests and minerals from the GDP and in order to estimate it, is used Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) in dynamic panel data form. The model estimation results show that general indicators of natural resources abundance had a positive and significant effect on the military expenditure of countries studied. Also, with separate of revenues from natural resources, show that the share revenues of oil and natural gas from the GDP, had a positive and significant effect and revenues from other natural resources, had a meaninglessness effect on the military expenditure in this countries. Accordingly, can say that the energy resources in Middle East countries influence on the military expenditure.So that a one percent increases in the share of oil and natural gas revenues of GDP, respectively, will increase military burden in this countries approximately 0.14 and 0.05 percent.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

خزاعی، جواد.(1394). «تأثیر وفور منابع بر سرمایه اجتماعی در بین کشورهای صادرکنندۀ نفت خام». فصلنامۀ اقتصاد منابع طبیعی. دوره 4. شمارۀ 3 (زمستان). صص 18-35.
شاه‌آبادی، ابوالفضل و صادقی، حامد. (1392). «مقایسۀ اثر وفور منابع طبیعی بر رشد اقتصادی ایران و نروژ». فصلنامۀ مدلسازی اقتصادی. دورۀ 7. شمارۀ 22 (تابستان). صص 21-43.
صامتی، مجید و اسماعیل‌درجانی، نجمه. (1392). «تأثیر وفور منابع طبیعی بر سیاست‌های مالی دولت در ایران طی دورۀ ۱۳۸۷-۱۳۵۷ با تأکید بر فرضیۀ نفرین منابع طبیعی». فصلنامۀ سیاست‌های مالی و اقتصادی. دورۀ ۱. شمارۀ 3 (پاییز). صص 53-70.
طیبی، کمیل؛ مرضیه حاجی‌کرمی و هما سریری(1390). «تحلیل درجۀ بازبودن مالی و تجاری روی توسعۀ مالی ایران و شرکای تجاری». فصلنامۀ تحقیقات اقتصادی راه اندیشه. دورۀ 1. شمارۀ 4 (زمستان). صص 39-60.
گل‌خندان، ابوالقاسم؛ مجتبی خوانساری و داود گل‌خندان.(1394). «نظامی‌گری و رشد اقتصادی: شواهدی تجربی از کشورهای منطقۀ منا در قالب الگوی پانل‌پویا». فصلنامۀ رشد و توسعه اقتصادی. دورۀ 5. شمارۀ 18 (بهار). صص 31-50.
مولایی، محمد و ابوالقاسم گل‌خندان.(1392). «تحلیل پویای اثر مخارج نظامی بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای نفتی و غیرنفتی خاورمیانه». فصلنامۀ اقتصاد و الگوسازی. دوره 4. شمارۀ 14 و 15 (تابستان و پاییز).
هارتلی، کیت و تاد ساندلر. (1383). منتخبی از موضوعات در کتاب اقتصاد دفاع. ترجمۀابراهیم بیضایی. تهران: انتشارات سمت.
Abdelfattah, Y. M., A, Abu-Qarn & p. Dunne. (2013). »The Demand for Military Spending in Egypt«. Defense and Peace Economics. 25 (3). pp. 231-245.
Ali, H. & O. Abdellatif. (2013). »Military Expenditures and Natural Resources: Evidence from Rentier States in the Middle East and North Africa«. Defense and Peace Economics. available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2013.848574.
Al-Mawali, M. (2015). »Do Natural Resources of Rentier States Promote Military Expenditures?  Evidence from GCC Countries«. Journal of Economic & Financial Studies. 3 (3). pp. 49-53.
Antonakis, N. (1996). »Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Greece 1960-90«. Journal of Peace Research. 34 (1). pp. 89-100.
Arellano, M. & S. Bond. (1991). »Some Test of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and Application to Employment Equations«. Review of Economic Studies. 58 (1). pp 277-297.
Arellano, M. & O. Bover. (1995). »Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error Component Models«. Journal of Econometrics, 68(2). pp 29-51.
Auty, R. M. (1993). »Sustaining Development in Mineral Economies: The Resource Curse Thesis«. Resources Policy. 20 (1). pp. 77-87.
Baltagi, B. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. 3rd ed, McGraw-Hill.
Bannon, I. & Collier, P. (2003). »Natural Resources and Conflict: What can we do? In Natural Resources and Violent Conflict«. Edited by I. Bannon and P. Collier. Washington DC: World Bank. pp. 1-16.
Benoit, E. (1973). Defense and Economic Growth in Developing Countries. Boston, MA: Health and CO. Lexington Books.
Blundell, R. & S. Bond. (1998). »Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models«. Journal of Econometrics. 87 (3). pp. 115-143.
Bond, R. (2002). Dynamic Panel Data Model: A Guide to Micro Data Methods and Practice. The Institute for Fiscal Studies. Department of Economics.
Chun, C. K. S. (2010). »Do Oil Exports Fuel Defense Spending?«. Strategic Studies Institute (SSI). United States Army War College.
Degger, S. (1986). »Economic Development and Defense Expenditure«. Economic Development and Cultural Change. 35 (1). pp. 179-196.
Douch, M. & B. Solomon. (2014). »Middle Powers and the Demand for Military Expenditures«. Defense and Peace Economics. 25 (6). pp. 605-618.
Dunne, P. (1996). »Economic Effects of Military Expenditure in Development Countries: A Survey«. The Peace of Dividend. Ch. 23. pp. 439-464.
Dunne, P. & E. Nikolaidou. (2001). »Military Expenditure and Economic Growth: A Demand and Supply Model for Greece 1960–1996«. Defense and Peace Economics. 12 (1). pp. 47-68.
Dunne, J. P. & S. Perlo-Freeman. (2003). »The Demand for Military Spending in Developing Countries«. International Review of Applied Economics. 17 (1). pp. 23-48.
Farzanegan, M. R. (2011). »Oil Revenue Shocks and Government Spending Behavior in Iran«. Energy Economics. 33 (6). pp. 1055-1069.
Fonfria, A. & Marin, R. (2012). »Determinants of the Demand for Defense Expenditure in the NATO Countries«. Journal of the Higher School of National Defense Studies. 3 (4). pp. 9-30.
Green, W. H. (2012). Econometric Analysis. New Jersey. Upper Saddle River: Pearson International.
Guesnet, L. (2013). »Oil, Conflict and Military Expenditure: The Chad Example«. Conference Paper Presented at 17th Annual International Conference on Economics and Security SIPRI. Stockholm.
Hamid, E. A. & A. A. Omnia. (2013). »Military Expenditures and Natural Resources: Evidence from Rentier States in the Middle East and North Africa«. Defense and Peace Economics. 26 (1). pp. 5-15.
Hasan, N. A. (2014). »Military Spending and Natural Resources: Evidence from Global Data«. Department of Public Policy and Administration In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Public Policy and Administration.
Im, K. S.; M. H. Pesaran. & Y. Shin. (2003). »Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels«. Journal of Econometrics. 115 (1). pp. 53-74.
Kao, C. (1999). »Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Co-integration in Panel Data«. Journal of Econometrics. 90 (1). pp. 1-44.
Le Billon, P. (2005). »Fueling War: Natural Resources and Armed Conflict«. New York. NY: Routledge for the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
Murdoch, J. C. & T. Sandler. (2002). »Economic Growth, Civil Wars, and Spatial Spillovers«. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 46 (3). pp. 91-110.
Pedroni, P. (2004). »Panel Co-integration, Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis«. Econometric Theory. 20 (3). pp. 597-625.
Perlo-Freeman, S. & Brauner, J. (2012). »Natural Resources and Military Expenditure: The Case of Algeria«. The Economics of Peace and Security Journal. 7(1). pp 15–21.
Rosh, R. M. (1988). »Third World Militarization: Security Webs and the States they Ensnare«. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 32 (4). pp. 671–698.
Ross, M. (2004). »What do We Know about Natural Resources and Civil War?«. Journal of Peace Research. 41 (3). pp. 337–356. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0022343304043773
Sezgin, S. & Yildirim, J. (2002). »Democracy and Military Expenditure: Cross Country Evidence«. Paper presented at the Sixth Annual Middlesex Conference on Economics and Security. Middlesex University Business School. London. 21–22 June 2002.
SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute). (2014).Yearbooks Armaments and Disarmaments and International Security. SIPRI-Oxford University Press. New York.Various Issues.
Solomon, B. (2005). »The Demand for Military Expenditures in Canada«. Defense and Peace Economics. 16 (3). pp. 171–189.
Varisco, A. E. (2010). »A Study on the Inter-Relation between Armed Conflict and Natural Resources and its Implications for Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding«. Journal of Peace. Conflict and Development. 15 (2). pp. 124-139.
Strategic Studies of public policy
Volume 7, Issue 22
June 2017
Pages 19-37

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics