Assessment risk Mashhad water supply options and their set priorities

Document Type : Research Papers

Author

Abstract

Infrastructure supply is one of the most important concerns of managers and programmers in countries in many parts of the world, especially in the field of water supply that is determined as a main limiting factor for development due to severe shortages in various parts of Resources, Energy and funding. Today, water supply for various parts is the most basic challenges ahead in Iran. Accordingly, water transport from other regions and implementation of the projects is one of the solutions along with the nonstructural activities. These projects consume a huge part of the national budgets. Now, Mashhad plain has faced to serious challenges in surface and ground water resources besides population growing and water contamination. In this research, challenges and opportunities of Mashhad water supply projects are investigated and a consistent method for assessing the risk is presented. Therefore, it is perused risk factors in Mashhad water supply projects in the first part of this article, based on brainstorming, and the average of risk is calculated for each option. Results show, although Hezar Masjed project has the lowest risk, waste water transfer to the east of the plain for replacing with agricultural water has the lowst possibility domain of risk. In fact, Results say using a range of risk areas to prioritize options (managerial decisions) can be more helpful. The paper also re-prioritizes various options of water supply based on the parameters of the project cost, the volume of water for each project; risk factor and water are recycled index.

Keywords

Main Subjects


قندهاری، ا. داوری، ک. عمرانیان خراسانی، ح .1394. راهنمای چارچوب مدیریت ریسک، نخستین کنگره ملی آبیاری زهکشی ایران، دانشگاه فردوسی، اردیبهشت 94
 نظری، ا. فرصت­کار، ا. کیافر، ب. 1387. مدیریت ریسک در پروژه‌­ها، انتشارات معاونت برنامه ریزی و نظارت راهبردی :مرکز مدارک علمی، موزه و انتشارات، 109 / 00 / 87 .
Bayazidi, B., Oladi, B., Abbasi, N., (2012). The questionnaire data analysis using by SPSS software (PASW) 18, Mehregan, Tehran, in persion.
Cronbach, L. J., & Shavelson R. J. (2004).  My Current Thoughts on Coefficient Alpha and Successor Procedures. Educational and Psychological Measurement. 64, 391-418.
Chaves, P. & Kojiri, T. 2007. Deriving reservoir operational strategies considering water quantity and quality objectives by stochastic fuzzy neural networks. Adv. Water Resour. 30, 1329–1341.
Davison, A., Howard, G., Stevens, M., Callan, P., Fewtrell L, Deere, D,. 2008. Water safety plans: managing drinking-water quality from catchment to consumer. Prepared for theGeneva: World Health Organisation; 2005 [WHO/SDE/WSH/05.06].
Dominguez-Chicas, A., Scrimshaw, M,. 2010. Hazard and risk assessment for indirect potable reuse schemes: an approach for use in developing water safety plans. Water Res 2010;44(2):6115–23.
Faye, R. M., Sawadogo, S., Lishoua, C. & Mora-Camino, F. 2003. Long-term fuzzy management of water resource systems. Appl. Math. Comput. 137, 459–475.
Germain, D., Cohen, D., Frederick, J. 2008. A Retrospective Look at the Water Resource Management Policies in Nassau County, Long Island, New York,Volume 44, Issue 5, pages 1337–1346, October 2008
Griffith, C., Obee, P., Cooper, R. 2005. The Clinical Application of Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points (HACCP). American Journal of Infection Control 33, e39
Hellier,K. 2000. Hazard analysis and Critical Control Points for water supplies .63rd Annual Water Industry Engineers and Operators’ Conference Civic Centre – Warrnambool 6 and 7 September.
Hokstad, P., Pettersson, T.J.R., Kirchner, D., Niewersch, C., Linde, A., Sturm, S., Røstum, J., Sklet, S., Beuken, R., 2009. Methods for risk analysis of drinking water systems from source to tap - Guidance report on Risk Analysis, Project Funded by the European Commission, Sixth Framework Programme, Sustainable Development, 2009 TECHNEAU
Hong, E., Lee, I., Shin, H., Nam, S., Kong, J. 2009. Quantitative risk evaluation based on event tree analysis technique: Application to the design of shield TBM, Tunnelling and Underground Space Technology 24 (2009) 269–277
Jayarante A. 2008.  Application of a risk management system to improve drinking water safety. J Water Health 2008;6(4):547–57.
Jairaj, P. G. & Vedula, S. 2000. Multi-reservoir system optimization using fuzzy mathematical  rogramming. Water Resour. Manage. 14, 457–472.
Khatri . B. 2013. RISK AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR SUSTAINABLE URBAN WATER SYSTEMS. DISSERTATION UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education for the Degree of DOCTOR. Published by: CRC Press/Balkema. ISBN: 978-1-138-00096-4
Luyet, V. Schlaepfer, R., Parlange, M, B. Buttler, A., 2012 . A framework to implement t Stakeholder participation in environmental projects, Journal of Environmental Management,111,213-e-219.
Maqsood, I., Huang, G. H. & Yeomans, J. S. 2005. An interval parameter fuzzy two-stage stochastic program for water resources management  nder uncertainty. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 167 (1), 208–225.
Mays, L.W. and Tung, Y.K. 1992. Hydrosystems engineering and management. McGraw-Hill. Book Co., Singapore.
McIntyre, N., Wagener, T., Wheater, H. S. & Siyu, Z.  2003. Uncertainty and risk in water quality modelling and management. J. Hydroinformat. 5 (4), 259–274.
Pipattanapiwong, J., 2004. Development of multi-party risk and uncertainty management process for an infrastructure project, Doctoral dissertation, Japan, Kochi University of Technology.
WEF (World Economic Forum), 2015. Insight Report Global Risks 2015, 10th Edition, World Economic Forum, Geneva. Available at: <http://reports.weforum. org/global-risks-2015/> (last checked: 04.04.15)
USGS. 2000. A Retrospective Analysis on the Occurrence of Arsenic in Ground-Water Resources of the United States and Limitations in Drinking-Water-Supply Characterizations, Water-Resources Investigations Report 99–4279, Reston, Virginia 2000
Yokoi, H., Embutsu, I., Yoda, M,Waseda K,. 2006. Study on the introduction of hazard analysis and critical control point (HACCP) concept of the water quality management in water supply systems. Water Sci Technol 2006;53(4):483–92
Tankana, H. Gue, p. 1999. Theory and Methodology Portfolio selection based on upper and lower exponential possibility distributions. European Journal of Operational Research 114 (1999) 115-126
Tankana, H. Gue, p. Turkesen, B. 2000. Portfolio selection based on fuzzy probabilities and possibility distributions. Fuzzy Sets and Systems 111 (2000) 387-397
Ted, S. 2014. Environmental Risk Assessment: A Toxicological Approach. CrC Press group. International Standard book Number 13-978-1-4665 - 9829- 4.
Tran, L. D., Schilizzi, S., Chalak, M. & Kingwell, R. 2011. Optimizing competitive uses of water for irrigation and fisheries. Agric. Water Manage. 101, 42–51.
Turner B.L. 2010, vullenrability and resilience: coalescing or paralleling approaches for sustainability science?. Global environrmental change, 20:570-576
Zhang, X. H., Zhang, H. W., Chen, B., Guo, H. C., Chen, G. Q. & Zhao, B.A. 2009. An inexact-stochastic dual water supply programming model. Commun. Nonlinear Sci. 14, 301–309.
Zilinskas, R. 2005. Assessing the threat of bio terrorism congressional testimony. Center for nonproliferation studies. From http://cns.miis.edu.