The telecom industry, as the backbone of the digital economy, plays a critical role in fostering innovation, productivity, and economic resilience. This study aims to analyze Iran’s position in the global value chain (GVC) of the telecom industry and to explore its future development pathways through a foresight-based approach. Employing a qualitative and exploratory methodology, data were collected through semi-structured interviews with policy, industry, and academic experts. Thematic analysis was applied in six systematic stages. Findings indicate that Iran’s current position in the telecom GVC is largely concentrated in downstream activities—service provision and consumption—while its presence in upstream segments such as design, R&D, and standardization remains limited. Institutional barriers, sanctions, and insufficient investment in innovation have contributed to this gap. Nevertheless, emerging opportunities such as 5G, IoT, cloud services, and a young skilled workforce present potential levers for technological upgrading. Based on critical drivers and uncertainties, three scenarios were developed for Iran’s telecom industry: Technological Leap, Smart Linkage, and Network Disruption. The results emphasize that realizing the “Technological Leap” scenario requires regulatory transformation, targeted R&D investment, and international engagement. Conversely, the “Network Disruption” scenario implies continued stagnation. Policy recommendations are proposed to support Iran’s transition from a consumer role toward value-creating segments in the global telecom chain.